Financial history doesn’t repeat itself, but it tends to rhyme.

In 2008, the kinds of excessive risk-taking and speculation on Wall Street that had sparked the Great Depression in 1929 contributed to another massive global downturn.

Now some economists are voicing concern that 2021 could see a rerun of another economic calamity: the Great Inflation of the 1970s.

Every two years, the Banque de France and TSE distinguish researchers who have developed fundamental concepts in monetary economics and finance. The aim of these prizes is to encourage research that contributes to a better definition and implementation of policies conducted by central banks.

The 2021 prizes will be awarded on May 17 by François Villeroy de Galhau and Sylvie Goulard (Banque de France) and Jean Tirole and Christian Gollier (TSE) at virtual conference broadcast from Paris.

Research presentations by laureates Silvana Tenreyro (Junior Prize), Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson (Junior Prize), and John Moore (Senior prize), were followed by an engaging roundtable discussion on the theme “Money and Liquidity in Times of Crisis”.

If the Fed is forced to cool an overheating economy, there are only painful choices.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen caused some consternation last week when she raised the possibility that “interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure our economy doesn’t overheat.”

Higher corporate rates may have a big impact. Investors should start preparing.

Four years ago, corporate tax reform was on the agenda, but few took it seriously. What happened next? Tax reform did come through by the end of the year, under President Donald Trump

To stave off runaway price hikes, the country needs to be reassured that the Federal Reserve still has its hand on the leash.

Inflation is low. So are interest rates. More than $3 trillion of Covid-19 relief spending in 2020 apparently had no negative macroeconomic consequences.

But it is still worth keeping an eye on

In 1975 Adam Fergusson, a journalist on the Times, published a book called “When Money Dies”.

Emi Nakamura explores the macroeconomy by examining massive databases at their most granular level and finding patterns that elude others.

Noah Smith

Long ago, people thought the business cycle was akin to a natural event, like the phases of the moon. That has since been disproven, but there are a number of other competing hypotheses.

May 2nd 2019

Putting the macroeconomy under the microscope

The year 2007, when Emi Nakamura earned her phd, was a strange one for her chosen discipline of macroeconomics.

The John Clark Bates Medal almost never goes to a macroeconomist. Emi Nakamura is a worthy exception.

By Noah Smith

May 2, 2019, 12:27 AM GMT+5:30 Corrected May 2, 2019, 3:13 AM GMT+5:30

Ms. Nakamura is just fourth woman to receive award since it began in 1947

Emi Nakamura, professor at the University of California, Berkeley, won the John Bates Clark Medal for her distinctive approach and creativity in her research.

American Economic Association Honors and Awards Committee

Emi Nakamura is an empirical macroeconomist who has greatly increased our understanding of price-setting by firms and the effects of monetary and fiscal policies.

Macroeconomics is better than you think, microeconomics worse, and data are limited

In a couple of days I’m giving a luncheon talk to the New York chapter of the National Association of Business Economists, and the title of this essay was the title I provided for the talk.

China says its economy grew 6.7% for the third consecutive quarter

Chinese farmers worked at their paddy fields in a village in Congjiang county, southwest China's Guizhou province on Tuesday.

​Events have weakened the rationale against it, chief economics commentator Greg Ip says

Six years ago, Olivier Blanchard, then chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, floated the idea that central banks should target 4% inflation instead of 2%. I remember giving a colleague countless reasons why he was wrong.

China’s official figures both understate and overstate inflation

IS CHINA’S economy underheating? Not long ago, many people would have scoffed at the suggestion. The country is known for searing property prices, hot-money inflows and the steam escaping from its financial furnaces.

China's economy faces many challenges. Rising prices aren't one of them, at least according to official data.

Consumer prices in January were up 2.5% from a year earlier, matching December's pace and within Beijing's comfort zone. While such low inflation might normally make authorities feel safe opening the credit spigots, that's unlikely to happen given the concern about the economy's mounting debt load.

Other forms of government spending are presumably similar

A WHILE back I noted a post by a major tea-party figure eagerly supporting the bog-standard mainstream economic assumption that higher government spending creates higher economic output.

Düsseldorfer Ökonomen geben Gas

Die ewige Rivalität der rheinischen Städte Köln und Düsseldorf setzt sich jetzt auch in der Volkswirtschaftslehre (VWL) fort – zumindest auf den ersten Blick. Die Düsseldorfer Ökonomen haben ihren Kölner Kollegen den Wirtschaftswissenschaftler HansTheo Normann vor der Nase weggeschnappt.